::: Project area C: Macroeconomic risks
 

C7	Macroeconomic Risk in Labor and Financial Markets	Prof. Michael C. Burda, Ph.D.	Homepage
C10	Macroecomic Consequences of Strategic Uncertainty	Prof. Dr. Frank Heinemann	Homepage
C11	Weather Risk Management	Prof. Dr. Martin Odening Prof. Dr. Brenda López Cabrera Prof. Dr. Weining Wang	Homepage
C12	Inference for jump models and nonlinear inverse problems	Prof. Dr. Markus Reiß	Homepage
C14	Expectations Management of Central Banks and the Financial Crisis	Prof. Dr. Dieter Nautz	Homepage
C15	Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis	Prof. Dr. Helmut Lütkepohl	Homepage

Analysis of macroeconomic risks

Macroeconomic risks attract attention to themselves as macroeconomic shocks and their after-effects. At the same time one must appreciate whether the respective risks are large or not. For this reason is a qualitative dynamic-stochastic approach, whether theoretical or empirical, particularly suitable for the analysis of these risks. The interplay between the risks on important market sub-segments, job markets, goods markets, asset markets and the economy on the whole needs to be researched. The money and fiscal policy receives special attention as the task falls on them to control and contain the macroeconomic risks. Accordingly the following subject areas yield from the project area.

Multivariate analysis of time series

What are macroeconomic risks composed off and how are these shocks transmitted? In order to answer these questions multivariate analysis of market economic time series will be applied by Uhlig (C1), Brüggemann und Trenkler (C2), Mackowiak (C3) und Brüggemann (C6) and partially from Ritschl (C5). At the same time vector-auto-regression and factor-analysis will especially come into operation.

Quantitative, stochastic and dynamic theories

How do conjuncture-risks behave? What role do employment market structures play? Which macroeconomic consequences result from the microeconomic distortions resulting from rigid pricing? What arises as a result of the interplay between macroeconomic risks and the financial markets? This requires quantitative, stochastic, dynamic theories that will be developed in the projects of Uhlig (C1), Mackowiak (C3), Reiß (C4), Ritschl (C5) and Burda (C7).

Influence of risk on long-term growth

How is the long-term growth influenced by macroeconomic risks? How should one deal with large macroeconomic risks that cause seldom but dramatic changes, like for example finance crises, large depressions or significant deflation? These questions will be analysed in the projects of Reiß (C4) and Ritschl (C5).

Optimal management of macroeconomic risks

What does the optimal management of macroeconomic risks look like? Which roll has financial and fiscal policy in it? How should time delay effects be considered? How can achieved insights into financial and fiscal political challenges of the EU east expansion be utilised? These questions will be answered by the projects of Uhlig (C1), Mackowiak (C3), Reiß (C4) and Brüggemann (C6).

::: Projects finished

C1	Macroeconomic Risks: Factors, the Role of Capital Markets and Implications for Economic Policy (finished)	Prof. Harald Uhlig, Ph.D.	Homepage
C2	Unit Root and Cointegration Methods (finished)	Dr. Ralf Brüggemann, Dr. Carsten Trenkler	Homepage
C3	International Macroeconomic Risk, It Sources and How Policy can manage it (finished)	Juniorprof. Bartosz Mackowiak, Ph.D.	Homepage
C4	Stochastic Optimization for Economic Models under Consideration of Time Lag Effects (finished)	Dr. Markus Reiß	Homepage
C5	Macroeconomic Risk from a Long-Run Perspective (finished)	Prof. Dr. Albrecht Ritschl	Homepage
C6	Quantitative Analysis of Monetary Policy in the enlarged European Union (finished)	Dr. Imke Brüggemann	Homepage