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::: Project area C: Macroeconomic risks

C7 Macroeconomic Risk in Labor and Financial Markets Prof. Michael C. Burda, Ph.D. Homepage
C10 Macroecomic Consequences of Strategic Uncertainty Prof. Dr. Frank Heinemann Homepage
C11 Weather Risk Management Prof. Dr. Martin Odening
Prof. Dr. Brenda López Cabrera
Prof. Dr. Weining Wang
C12 Inference for jump models and nonlinear inverse problems Prof. Dr. Markus Reiß Homepage
C14 Expectations Management of Central Banks and the Financial Crisis Prof. Dr. Dieter Nautz Homepage
C15 Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis Prof. Dr. Helmut Lütkepohl Homepage

Analysis of macroeconomic risks

Macroeconomic risks attract attention to themselves as macroeconomic shocks and their after-effects. At the same time one must appreciate whether the respective risks are large or not. For this reason is a qualitative dynamic-stochastic approach, whether theoretical or empirical, particularly suitable for the analysis of these risks. The interplay between the risks on important market sub-segments, job markets, goods markets, asset markets and the economy on the whole needs to be researched. The money and fiscal policy receives special attention as the task falls on them to control and contain the macroeconomic risks. Accordingly the following subject areas yield from the project area.

Multivariate analysis of time series

What are macroeconomic risks composed off and how are these shocks transmitted? In order to answer these questions multivariate analysis of market economic time series will be applied by Uhlig (C1), Brüggemann und Trenkler (C2), Mackowiak (C3) und Brüggemann (C6) and partially from Ritschl (C5). At the same time vector-auto-regression and factor-analysis will especially come into operation.

Quantitative, stochastic and dynamic theories

How do conjuncture-risks behave? What role do employment market structures play? Which macroeconomic consequences result from the microeconomic distortions resulting from rigid pricing? What arises as a result of the interplay between macroeconomic risks and the financial markets? This requires quantitative, stochastic, dynamic theories that will be developed in the projects of Uhlig (C1), Mackowiak (C3), Reiß (C4), Ritschl (C5) and Burda (C7).

Influence of risk on long-term growth

How is the long-term growth influenced by macroeconomic risks? How should one deal with large macroeconomic risks that cause seldom but dramatic changes, like for example finance crises, large depressions or significant deflation? These questions will be analysed in the projects of Reiß (C4) and Ritschl (C5).

Optimal management of macroeconomic risks

What does the optimal management of macroeconomic risks look like? Which roll has financial and fiscal policy in it? How should time delay effects be considered? How can achieved insights into financial and fiscal political challenges of the EU east expansion be utilised? These questions will be answered by the projects of Uhlig (C1), Mackowiak (C3), Reiß (C4) and Brüggemann (C6).


::: Projects finished

C1 Macroeconomic Risks: Factors, the Role of Capital Markets and Implications for Economic Policy (finished) Prof. Harald Uhlig, Ph.D. Homepage
C2 Unit Root and Cointegration Methods (finished)
Dr. Ralf Brüggemann,
Dr. Carsten Trenkler
C3 International Macroeconomic Risk, It Sources and How Policy can manage it (finished) Juniorprof. Bartosz Mackowiak, Ph.D. Homepage
C4 Stochastic Optimization for Economic Models under Consideration of Time Lag Effects (finished) Dr. Markus Reiß Homepage
C5 Macroeconomic Risk from a Long-Run Perspective (finished) Prof. Dr. Albrecht Ritschl Homepage
C6 Quantitative Analysis of Monetary Policy in the enlarged European Union (finished) Dr. Imke Brüggemann Homepage



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