Macroeconomic risks attract attention to themselves as macroeconomic shocks and their after-effects. At the same time one must appreciate whether the respective risks are large or not. For this reason is a qualitative dynamic-stochastic approach, whether theoretical or empirical, particularly suitable for the analysis of these risks. The interplay between the risks on important market sub-segments, job markets, goods markets, asset markets and the economy on the whole needs to be researched. The money and fiscal policy receives special attention as the task falls on them to control and contain the macroeconomic risks. Accordingly the following subject areas yield from the project area.
Multivariate analysis of time series
What are macroeconomic risks composed off and how are these shocks transmitted? In order to answer these questions multivariate analysis of market economic time series will be applied by Uhlig (C1), Brüggemann und Trenkler (C2), Mackowiak (C3) und Brüggemann (C6) and partially from Ritschl (C5). At the same time vector-auto-regression and factor-analysis will especially come into operation.
Quantitative, stochastic and dynamic theories
How do conjuncture-risks behave? What role do employment market structures play? Which macroeconomic consequences result from the microeconomic distortions resulting from rigid pricing? What arises as a result of the interplay between macroeconomic risks and the financial markets? This requires quantitative, stochastic, dynamic theories that will be developed in the projects of Uhlig (C1), Mackowiak (C3), Reiß (C4), Ritschl (C5) and Burda (C7).
Influence of risk on long-term growth
How is the long-term growth influenced by macroeconomic risks? How should one deal with large macroeconomic risks that cause seldom but dramatic changes, like for example finance crises, large depressions or significant deflation? These questions will be analysed in the projects of Reiß (C4) and Ritschl (C5).
Optimal management of macroeconomic risks
What does the optimal management of macroeconomic risks look like? Which roll has financial and fiscal policy in it? How should time delay effects be considered? How can achieved insights into financial and fiscal political challenges of the EU east expansion be utilised? These questions will be answered by the projects of Uhlig (C1), Mackowiak (C3), Reiß (C4) and Brüggemann (C6).
::: Projects finished
Macroeconomic Risks: Factors, the Role of Capital Markets and Implications for Economic Policy (finished)